State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology "Vector"

The smaller the number of individuals involved in the epidemic, the greater the deviations from the mean, the greater the dispersion of possible outcomes of the epidemic.

In order to realize the possibility of studying the simulation results for a small number of infected, an option is implemented under the code name "Random model". This option assumes that the most critical, most sensitive to the amount of persons: infection process is random with a variance inversely proportional to the mean.

In implementing the option "Random model" dynamics of an epidemic is calculated 100 times, and each time the number of infected people in a given class is set at random.

To start
Userís Guide