State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology "Vector"

This program is intended for predicting scenarios for development of epidemics (outbreaks) of particularly dangerous special and socially significant infectious diseases. Since the model forming the background for the program is a deterministic one, the more individuals involved in an epidemic, the higher is the accuracy of prediction.
Both the model and program are inappropriate for describing a few cases of infection transmission. The model is also not intended to describe the epidemic of chronic diseases.

In the models, several stages characteristic of each of the considered diseases are distinguished; these stages differ in their symptomatology, probability for correct diagnosing, and the level of infectivity of the patients. For example, three stages are considered in the model for smallpox pathogenesis:

  • Incubation (not contagious) period;
  • A relatively short prodromal (fever) period, when the patient is contagious but correct diagnosing of smallpox is yet hindered without the information about the onset of an outbreak; and
  • The period of rash, when a non-isolated patient transmits infection with a high probability, especially to the family members and the ambient individuals in non-infection departments of hospitals.