State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology "Vector"

 Russian version

Modeling Local Epidemics and Outbreaks

The model is intended for simulation scenarios for development of epidemics (outbreaks) caused by highly dangerous and socially significant pathogens.

It is assumed that the model is able to describe the development of any acute infectious disease epidemics, where the main transmission routes are infection from some external source or by casual contact among people, regardless of gender, age and other socio-demographic characteristics of the population. It is also assumed that the relatively simple structure of the model is sufficient to describe the main features of the epidemic, considering the fact that the data for the adaptation of more complex structured models are generally not available.

A set of countermeasures is taken into account in modeling: detection and isolation (observation) of the infected persons, contacts, and suspects, mass vaccination and vaccination of risk groups, trevention and treatment, quarantine, with different degrees of activity reducing the infection rate. All these countermeasures are implemented the corresponding resources provided; the resources comprise qualified medical/paramedical staff; facilities for isolation/observation of patients, contacts, and suspects; and the resources of prevention tools and drugs.

Alexander G. Bachinsky and Lily Ph. Nizolenko, A Universal Model for Predicting Dynamics of the Epidemics Caused by Special Pathogens, BioMed Research International, vol. 2013, Article ID 467078, 7 pages, 2013. doi:10.1155/2013/467078

Users Guide

Designed by Ul'ana Rogosina